Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Commodity Currencies Responding Well
Talking Points
- EUR/USD holds just above major pivot
- AUD/USD slams into Gann resistance
- Important next few days for EUR/GBP
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Focus Chart of the Day: USD/NOK
As we have written in several recent notes, the latter half of last week was important from a timing perspective for a few ‘commodity currencies’ like Kiwi, CAD and NOK. While we have been concentrating on Kiwi because it has had the clearest cycle the others have shown some good cyclicality as well. USD/NOK for instance, peaked right during last week’s window near the 6.0630 61.8% retracement of the July to September move lower. Assuming yesterday’s move higher was just a “stutter step” then the rate should try to head lower into a minor turn window at the end of the week. Any weakness under 5.9500 on a daily close basis would be confirmation of a more important peak. Strength back through 6.0630, on the other the hand, would invalidate the cycle high and focus immediate attention higher.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USDis in consolidation mode above the 1.3475 2nd square root progression of the year’s high
- While above this level our near-term trend bias has to remain higher in the rate
- Interim resistance is seen at 1.3595, but traction over the 8th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3660 is really needed to signal a broader upside resumption
- Near-term cycles are murky with minor turn windows seen today and early next week
- A move under 1.3475 would undermine the positive tone in the rate and focus immediate attention lower
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side for now, but may look to exit and go short on a move through 1.3475.
Price Time Analysis: AUD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- AUD/USD traded to its highest level since mid-June on Tuesday before encountering resistance at the 10th square root progression of the year’s high in the .9545 area
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Aussie while above the 6th square root progression of the year’s low at .9410
- Traction over .9545 on a closing basis is needed to signal the start of a more important move higher in the rate
- Thursday is a minor turn window
- A daily close below .9410 would turn us negative on the Aussie
AUD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .9410.
Price Time Analysis: EUR/GBP
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/GBP traded to its highest level since early September last week before finding resistance at the 1×1 Gann angle line of the year’s high at .8505
- While over the 61.8% retracement of the month-to-date advance near .8395 our near-term trend bias will remain positive in the cross
- The 1×1 line now at .8490 is an important barrier that needs to be breached if the advance in EUR/GBP is going to develop into something more material
- Early next week is a minor cycle turn window
- A daily close below .8395 would turn us immediately negative on the cross
EUR/GBP Strategy: Like buying into the weakness exepcted over the next few days as long as .8395 remains intact.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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