Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: European Déjà Vu
Talking Points
- EUR/USD fills weekend gap again
- GBP/USD inching its way back towards 200-day moving average
- USD/JPY falls to multi-week lows
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPYtraded to its lowest level since late May this morning before rebounding aggressively
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in USD/JPY while below 124.40
- The December/March closing highs around 121.40 remain an important downside attraction
- A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
- A close back over 124.40 would turn us positive on rate
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 124.40
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USDhas come under steady pressure since failing at the 50% retracement of the 2014-2015 decline at 1.5875 last month
- Our near-term trend bias is lower in the pound while below 1.5790
- The 200-day moving average around 1.5460 is a key pivot with weakness below needed to confirm that a more important move lower is underway
- A minor turn window is seen on today
- A daily close back above 1.5790 would turn us positive again on GBP/USD
GBP/USD Strategy: Like selling on strength against 1.5790.
Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD
It was déjà vu all over again as EUR/USD started the week by gapping lower in response to adverse news from Greece before then rallying to fill the gap within a few hours. A cynic might say it all has a bit of a “managed response” feel about it. Whatever the case may be the near near-term levels of importance for the euro are now pretty well defined. On the downside, the lows from today and last week at 1.0967 and 1.0952 are clearly psychologically significant and a gateway to the more significant May low at 1.0820 (below which would confirm that the broader downtrend is resuming in the exchange rate). On the upside, the 50-day moving average and the top end of a median line channel coincide around 1.1180. Traction above there would warn that a low of some importance is in place. It is “wait and see” until then, but our bias remains lower while 1.1180 holds.
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— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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