Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
- USD/JPY slams into Fibonacci resistance
- SP 500 still looks to be in a broader topping process
- USD/CHF testing important Gann resistance
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY traded to its highest level since late July on Friday before encountering resistance just ahead of the 78.6% retracement of the July to August decline in the 100.30 area
- While over the 50% retracement of the August to September advance in the 98.00 area our near-term trend bias will remain higher
- The 100.30 level is now a near-term upside pivot with strength above required to trigger the next leg higher
- A minor cycle high is seen around the middle of next week
- The 98.75 area is intermediate support, but only clear weakness below 98.00 turns the technical outlook to negative
USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 98.00.
Price Time Analysis: USD/CHF
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CHF traded to its highest levels since mid-July on Friday before finding resistance at the 1×1 Gann angle line of the year’s high in the .9445 area
- While over the 2nd square root progression of the August low in the .9340 area our near-term trend bias will remain higher
- A close over .9445 is needed to prolong the advance and signal that a more important move higher is unfolding
- A medium-term cycle turn window is seen around the latter half of next week
- The 4th square root progression of the year’s low near .9400 should act as near-term support, but only weakness below .9340 will turn us negative on USD/CHF
USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .9340
Price Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD has come under steady downside pressure since failing on a closing basis at the 7th square root progression of the year-to-date low in the 1418 area
- While over 1350 our near-term trend bias will remain higher
- The 1418 level is now an important near-term pivot, but over 1440 is really required to set off another important leg higher
- A minor cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next week
- Weakness below 1350 would undermine the immediate positive tone, but only weakness below 1280 would turn our outlook negative on the metal
USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1350
Focus Chart of the Day: SP 500
The recovery we were looking for in the SP 500 off important Gann support at 1627 has unfolded nicely. If our interpretation of the short-term cyclical picture is correct then the index should experience another day or two of strength before entering into another important turn window. Failure to gain traction over the 1677/92 resistance zone during this time will raise the possibility that a broader topping process is indeed in play. Weakness below 1627 at anytime should trigger a much more serious decline.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the SPX in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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