Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of CAD Employment Figures
Talking Points
- Cycle turn windows in several commodity currencies
- USD/JPY rebounds off 200-day MA
- SPX closing in on important upside pivot
To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD
The next couple of days look important for several commodity currencies as clear cycle turn windows exist in USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USD/NOK. Our best guess is that these windows will lead to a bout of currency strength (USD weakness) given the trend profiles leading into them. In USD/CAD we will be focusing on Gann and Fibonacci resistance between 1.0410 and 1.0455 as we suspect this area should hold if a topping process is indeed paying out. Complicating matters somewhat is a slew of Canadian data over the next few sessions, but as long as this zone holds on a daily close basis the potential remains for a peak in our view. Weakness under 1.0370 would be seen as initial confirmation of a high.
Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPYhas rallied aggressively over the past few days after finding support at the 7th square root progression of the year’s high in the 96.60 area
- While below 98.60, our near-term trend bias remains lower in the rate
- A daily close back under Gann support at 97.55 is needed to re-invigorate downside prospects
- A minor cycle turn window is seen on Monday
- A daily close over the 5th square root progression of the year’s high at 98.60 will turn us positive on the rate
USD/JPY Strategy: Might be worth taking a punt on the short side against 98.60 over the next few days. We will start looking to position long on any daily close over that level.
Price Time Analysis: GBP/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- GBP/USD has come under increasing pressure over the past few days and closed under the 2nd square root progression of the month-to-date high near 1.6000 on Wedensday
- This technical development has shifted our near-term trend bias to negative in Cable
- A Gann pivot is seen around 1.5895 with a break below exposing downside attractions at 1.5830 and below
- A minor cycle turn window is seen over the next day or so
- It would take strength back above the 1st square root progression of the October high at 1.6135 on a daily closing basis to turn us positive Cable
GBP/USD Strategy: We like selling into strength while the rate is below 1.6135.
Price Time Analysis: SP 500
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- SP 500 rebound from the 1652 2nd square root progression of the all time high gathered pace on Thursday
- The 1st square root progression of the all time high come into play at around 1692 and a daily close over this level is needed to shift the near term trend bias back to higher
- Interim support is seen around 1673, but a daily close under 1652 is really needed to provoke something more meaningful on the downside
- A minor cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next week
- A daily close over 1692 will turn us positive on the index
SP 500 Strategy: Square here, but may look to get long if index can close over 1692.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år ago
Upptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter5 år ago
Teknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke
-
Marknadsnyheter6 år ago
Tudorza reduces exacerbations and demonstrates cardiovascular safety in COPD patients