Analys från DailyFX
Price & Time: The Next Cycle Turn in AUD/USD
- AUD/USD approaching cycle turn window later this week
- EUR/USD overcomes key Gann resistance at 1.3325
- Gold meanders around a critical support level
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Foreign Exchange Price Time at a Glance:
Price Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- EUR/USD overcame key Gann resistance at 1.3325 early on Monday to trade to its highest level in three weeks
- Our near-term trend bias is now higher in the single currency and will remain so while above the 50% retracement of the August to September decline in the 1.3275 area
- The 78.6% retracement of the August to September decline at 1.3380 is a near-term upside pivot, but strength over 1.3425 on a closing basis is required to confirm the start of a more important advance
- The second half of the week is a cycle turn window
- Weakness back under 1.3275 would turn the outlook back to negative in the Euro
EUR/USD Strategy: Like being square here for a few days.
Price Time Analysis: NZD/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- NZD/USD overcame the .8175 50% retracement of the year-to-date range on Monday to trade to its highest level since mid-May
- Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the Kiwi while over .8115
- The 5th square root progression of the year’s closing high at .8215 is important resistance with a close over this level needed to prolong the advance
- The latter half of the week is an important medium-term cycle turn window
- Weakness under .8115 on a closing basis would turn undermine the immediate positive tone in the exchange rate
NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .8115
Price Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- XAU/USD continues to meader around the 1×1 Gann angle line of the 2012 closing high in the 1320 area
- While over 1270 our trend bias remains higher in the metal
- The 5th square root progression of the year’s low near 1350 is an important near-term pivot with strength above required to reinvogorate upside prospects
- An important cycle turn window is seen around the latter part of the week
- A close below 1270 at anytime will turn the technical outlook in Gold to negative
XAU/USD Strategy: Like being square for a few days.
Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD
We have written at length about the potential importance of the early August low in AUD/USD as that time period holds a Fibonacci time relationship with several important lows of the past four years. The successful re-test of this low late last month and subsequent strength back through .9300 is further evidence than an important bottoming process is taking place as is the confirmation of a clear inverse head shoulders pattern on the daily and weekly charts. Short-term cycle analysis favors further strength into the next minor turn window late this week.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in AUD in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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