Analys från DailyFX
Silver and Platinum Price Action Not Supporting Gold Fervor
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Talking Points
- Gold testing 200-day moving average
- Other metals remain stuck in bearish consolidation patterns
Silver and Platinum Price Action Not Supporting Gold Fervor
A lot has been made of the recent rally in Gold. I am still pretty skeptical. Now do not get me wrong I am pretty positive on the metal in a longer-term sense. In fact it is my trade of the year for 2016 (read HERE), but I have seen this movie so many times before over the past few years.
The rally that has unfolded from mid-December came from a very oversold condition. It has not tested anything meaningful on the upside in terms of resistance really until yesterday. The 200-day moving average and several key Fibonacci retracements all converge around 1130/35 and this should be the first real test for the metal. If it can get through there then we can start talking more seriously about a bona fide reversal, but even if that occurs I still think spot needs to overcome the October highs around 1190 to signal any real sort of true behavioral change. I say that because the bear market in Gold since 2011 has been littered with plenty of rally attempts that never seem to muster enough strength to overcome a prior important swing point high. If Gold can manage that then it will probably be enough evidence that the winds are truly beginning to shift in the metal.
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A big reason I have been skeptical of this rally in Gold outside of timing (several important timing relationships around the start of Q2 seem to favor another leg down), is the behavior in other precious metals. The rally in Silver has been less than impressive, as has the action in Platinum. Like Gold, both have been in strong bear markets since 2011. The action here in both looks more like a bearish consolidation than a base before turning sharply higher. Things can change obviously, but the burden of proof is still squarely on the bulls. In Silver over 14.60 opens the door to a more important upside correction, but only above 15.40 material changes the medium-term technical landscape. The same can be said for Platinum with traction above 896 needed to trigger a more important corrective process, but only a move over 926 would materially alter the negative technical picture.
What is the #1 mistake FX traders make? Find out HERE.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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