Analys från DailyFX
Silver Prices Trade Sideways Ahead of Jobless Claims
Talking Points
- Silver prices have traded sideways over the last 24 hours as conflicting U.S. data reports leaves traders with no strong bias.
- Silver prices are short-term bearish below today’s high of $17.48 as it is the most recent swing high of the short-term downtrend which started from the $18 level this Monday.
- This afternoon, U.S. Jobless Claims may rise from 257k to 260k, as per a Bloomberg News Survey.
Silver prices have been trading sideways since yesterday, despite traders attempt to breach the downtrend in place since Monday of this week.
The move higher in silver prices following the publication of the ADP Employment Change (it printed 156k vs. the 200k expected) was not enough to spur a bullish trend. Higher than expected readings of U.S. Unit Labor Costs and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, countered the bullish impulse given to silver prices by the soft ADP report.
The higher Unit Labor Costs, which rose to 4.1% YoY from 3.3% is something that adds to the Fed’s case to hike rates, while the higher than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing Index hints that the U.S. Service Sector is doing better than anticipated.
Silver prices are short-term bearish below today’s high of $17.48 as it is the most recent swing high of the short-term downtrend which started from the $18 level this Monday.
The next resistance level beyond today’s high is the May 3 high of $17.70 and followed by this week’s high of $18.
Short-term support levels are yesterday’s lows of 17.15, followed by April 27 low of $17.03 and the April 25 low of $16.78.
This afternoon, U.S. Jobless Claims may rise from 257k to 260k as per a Bloomberg News Survey. A lower than expected reading hints at a better than expected U.S. labor market, while a higher than expected reading has the opposite effect. The report may affect the USD, which in turn affects silver prices.
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Silver Price | CFD: XAG/USD
Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano
— Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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