Analys från DailyFX
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: CAD Performance Uneven Post-BoC Hold
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Talking Points:
- USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Bears Be Warned, We’re on US Dollar Breakout Watch
- Trader Sentiment Warns a Coiled Move Lower or Higher Could Be Around the Corner
- USD/CAD Fell From 7-Week Lows on BoC Rate Announcement
Wednesday saw a move lower after the Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged. The Bank of Canada policy was balanced with encouraging marks as well, and disappointment spread throughout. Most notably for disappointment, the Alberta Wildfires are expected to cut 1.25 percentage points off Canada’s real GDP growth in Q2 2016 due to ”fire-related destruction” and ”associated halt to oil production.” Additionally, there are increased vulnerabilities to Canadian Households, presumably similar to other Energy Reliance areas where leverage comes under scrutiny when revenue from resources dries up. Lastly, The Bank of Canada noted that business investment and intentions (commitments for future investment remain a disappointment.
Why then did the Canadian Dollar rise right after the report? First, there was a positive note regarding inflation that stated CPI inflation had risen recently; inflation is still slightly below the 2.0% target. Additionally, the Bank of Canada expects the economy to rebound in Q3 thanks to WTI Crude Oil price rebound should align with reconstruction in Alberta and production coming back online.
Therefore, it was a balanced statement, and for now, USD/CAD looks similarly balanced. In other words, while we’ve pushed into relative trend resistance via Ichimoku (explained below), there appears an Intermarket capability with WTI Crude Oil price steady near $50/bbl, and the US Dollar under strong resistance to pivot either way.
USD/CAD Has a Multitude of Strong Support at ~1.2750/1.2900 (H4 Chart)
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The chart above tells a story about what’s happened in USD/CAD from February to April, which was distinctly a mean-reversion in CAD WTI Crude Oil and US Dollar Downtrend and the month of May. May provided a reversal of fortunes that had developed over the prior three months as the US Dollar began to rally, even as the hedge funds sold it as per the CFTC’s CoT report. Per the last report, the fight goes on as Hedge Funds and large speculators increased bets on Canadian dollar gains to the highest since 2013 earlier this month.
Either way, you’ll note that we’ve now seen a flip on the chart from bearish to bullish, at least on the H4 chart above. First, we’ve moved above the H4 Ichimoku Cloud and the 21-day moving average that currently sits below 1.2900. However, looking over the May Range, you can see the current May move from 1.2458-1.3188 or ~6% is now supported by the Fibonacci 38.2-61.8% retracement range. Given the change in central bank rhetoric and market pricing in of Fed Action, this short-term support should give hope for the Bulls who hope to go the distance to the mid-1.3000s and beyond.
Key Support Levels from Here (Visual Map Below)
The daily chart above should help you get a sense for the divergence of long-term bearishness and swing-trader bullishness. Long-Term Resistance via the 100-DMA shown above at 1.3376 and the Ichimoku Cloud top near 1.3320 and the price channel ceiling are expected by the USD/CAD bears to hold price back. However, if it does not, there may be little that can hold the US Dollar and USD/CAD back from retracing much of the January 20–May 2 decline.
Shorter-term resistance is seen at the week’s high of 1.3180 and the pre-BoC high of 1.3140. A break above these levels, especially on a closing basis could show the previously mentioned resistance levels may soon be tested for significance.
Support, as noted above is easier to define on the swing chart. However, the Daily Chart provide 3-helpul levels to keep on watch. First, the May trend-line aligns nicely with the Weekly Pivot point at 1.3047. Within an ATR of .0097 is the Ichimoku Trigger Line (9-day midpoint or (high+ low for previous nine periods)/2) that stands at 1.3010.
Below here, we find a confluence of support between the 38.2-61.8% retracement of May’s 6% rally. Sticking with Ichimoku, the Base Line (26-day midpoint or (high + low for previous 26 periods)/2) current sits at 1.2823. Additionally, the Weekly S1 support aligns with the 38.2% retracement and May 18 open at 1.2908.
The steady-hand of the US Dollar and the lack of Canadian Dollar upside through May despite Oil’s rally would encourage me to look for a move to initial support at 1.3047/10 followed by 1.2908 as buying opportunities (not a trade recommendation).
Should one believe that the CAD is soon to return to its former glory displayed in February-April, weaker currencies that may trade well vs. the Canadian Dollar could be the Japanese Yen and the Euro, which have recently slide down the relative rankings at the end of May.
Canadian Dollar Has Lost Favor per Sentiment
When looking at sentiment, crowd positioning has neutralized after a strong downtrend. For those familiar with our model, USD/CAD provided one of the strongest signals for downtrend continuation from late February to May. We use our Speculative Sentiment Index as a contrarian indicator to price action. Therefore, with that the majority of traders at a near net-flat bull: bear positioning of 1.06 as 51% of traders are long could be saying that we’re on the cusp of another big move even through the direction is less certain.
Short positions are 5.7% lower than yesterday and 3.8% below levels seen last week. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives a signal that the USDCAD may continue lower. The trading crowd has flipped from net-short to net-long from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.
USD/CAD Speculative Sentiment Index as of Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Combining the technical picture above, with the sentiment picture, and the Intermarket analysis support further warns of more CAD gains ahead against the US Dollar.
Key Levels as of Wednesday, May 25, 2016
T.Y.
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
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Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
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Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
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