Analys från DailyFX
USD/JPY Claw Back
Price Time covers key technical themes daily and can be delivered to your inbox each morning by joining the distribution list: Price Time
Talking Points
- USD/JPY claws back BOJ inspired gains
- Important support test looms
USD/JPY – Claw Back
I last wrote about USD/JPY on Friday after the BOJ had made their surprise announcement to implement negative rates. Given the convergence of timing relationships (Armstrong Pi cycle of 8.6 years from 2007 high) with the meeting of the central bank, I was not that surprised that we got some fireworks. I suggested that Monday and Tuesday of this week could prove pivotal as there was plenty of risk that spot would fail against resistance between 121.50 and 122.00 (it was also my analyst pick, which you can read HERE).
Want to see how other traders in the market are positioned? Find out HERE
This 121.50 122.00 area was/is important as it marks a confluence of several key levels including an internal trendline connecting the October 2014 and August 2015 lows, the 200-day moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the June – January decline. After stalling out within this resistance zone on Friday the exchange rate underwent a secondary failure against this resistance on Monday, which has led to an aggressive move lower over the past couple of days that has seen all of the BOJ inspired gains from Friday erased at the time of this writing. Given Friday’s high coincided with important timing there is a clear possibility that this move down marks the start of a much more important leg lower. The 78.6% retracement of the year-to-date range around 117.00 is now a key downside pivot with a break below there setting up a full retracement to last month’s low. Last month’s low is critical from a long-term technical perspective as it has such negative implications if it convincingly gives way. Gann levels around 119.15 and 120.30 are important on the upside with a move above the latter needed to neutralize the immediate negative tone in the exchange rate.
What is the #1 mistake FX traders make? Find out HERE.
— Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
Analys från DailyFX
EURUSD Weekly Technical Analysis: New Month, More Weakness
What’s inside:
- EURUSD broke the ‘neckline’ of a bearish ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern, April trend-line
- Resistance in vicinity of 11825/80 likely to keep a lid on further strength
- Targeting the low to mid-11600s with more selling
Confidence is essential to successful trading, see this new guide – ’Building Confidence in Trading’.
Coming into last week we pointed out the likelihood of finally seeing a resolution of the range EURUSD had been stuck in for the past few weeks, and one of the outcomes we made note of as a possibility was for the triggering of a ’head-and-shoulders’ pattern. Indeed, we saw a break of the ’neckline’ along with a drop below the April trend-line. This led to decent selling before a minor bounce took shape during the latter part of last week.
Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline).
Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels.
For a longer-term outlook on EURUSD, check out the just released Q4 Forecast.
EURUSD: Daily
—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email bysigning up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinonFX.
Analys från DailyFX
Euro Bias Mixed Heading into October, Q4’17
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 37.3% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.68 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07831; price has moved 9.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 15.4% lower than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 10.5% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
Analys från DailyFX
British Pound Reversal Potential Persists Heading into New Quarter
Why and how do we use IG Client Sentiment in trading? See our guide and real-time data.
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 38.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.62 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 05 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29615; price has moved 3.4% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 13.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 18.3% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form
-
Analys från DailyFX8 år ago
EUR/USD Flirts with Monthly Close Under 30 Year Trendline
-
Marknadsnyheter1 år ago
Upptäck de bästa verktygen för att analysera Bitcoin!
-
Marknadsnyheter4 år ago
BrainCool AB (publ): erhåller bidrag (grant) om 0,9 MSEK från Vinnova för bolagets projekt inom behandling av covid-19 patienter med hög feber
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Japanese Yen Breakout or Fakeout? ZAR/JPY May Provide the Answer
-
Analys från DailyFX11 år ago
Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch in the Aftermath of NFP
-
Analys från DailyFX7 år ago
Gold Prices Falter at Resistance: Is the Bullish Run Finished?
-
Nyheter5 år ago
Teknisk analys med Martin Hallström och Nils Brobacke
-
Marknadsnyheter6 år ago
Tudorza reduces exacerbations and demonstrates cardiovascular safety in COPD patients